NASA/NSF Space Weather Modeling Collaboration: Advancing Space Weather Modeling for improved specification, forecasting, and mitigation

Forecasting Space Weather

Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. Not only should physical constraints be satisfied, but also practical issues such as timeliness, accuracy, and reliability must be adequately addressed. To address these needs, modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a great variety of space weather models, ranging from simple regressions and e...

Structure and Dynamics of the Electron Radiation Belts: Implications for Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below...

Halloween Storm Simulations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework

In late October and early November 2003 a series of some of the most powerful solar eruptions ever registered shook the heliosphere. These “Halloween storms” damaged 28 satellites, knocking two out of commission, diverted airplane routes and caused power failures in Sweden, among other problems. Long-distance radio communications were disrupted because of the effects on the ionosphere, and nort...

Validation of the space weather modeling framework using groundbased magnetometers

[1] Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can disrupt power grid operations, causing significant interference for many people; therefore, predictions of ground-based magnetic perturbations and their time derivatives are quite important. This study quantifies how well the University of Michigan’s Global MHD code predicts approximately 150 ground-based magnetometer traces for a number of storm-...